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VOL. 41 | NO. 3 | Friday, January 20, 2017

Buyers bypass hibernation to post big winter sales numbers

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Many among the hordes relocating to Nashville have admired the changing of the seasons in the area, especially those coming from California. And lately, of course, they’ve been able to enjoy all four in a matter of 24 hours.

Over the years, Realtors have fallen into a pattern that featured two seasons, the spring market and the fall market. Buyers and sellers hibernated from Thanksgiving to early April.

Nashvillians vacationed in June and retreated to air conditioned spaces to escape the heat and humidity of July and August.

During these dormant times, Realtors fell into survival mode and anxiously awaited the return of the buying and selling seasons.

With the real estate boom in full flight, all that seasonality was thrown out the bay window.

Unit sales in our area increased 2.7 percent in 2016, statistics compiled by Greater Nashville Realtors (formerly the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors) show. However, sales were up 5.6 percent in December following a November increase of more than 30 percent.

Homes sales thrived as daylight evaporated.

In 2016, the area had unit sales of more than 3,000 per month from February through December, except for November, which had 2,978.

January and February 2016 had sales of 2,167 and 2,293, respectively, last year. With 2,612 homes pending at the end of December, the January 2017 sales should eclipse 3,000.

To provide context, there were 2,774 pending sales at the end of November resulting in 3,280 December closings.

Last year May through August all posted sales of over 3,600 units per month. And since most loans take 45 to 60 days to close, the spring season must have begun in February and lasted until late August.

Inventory fell from 11,225 to 9,901 in 2016, but new listings are coming into the market with more frequency during the recent years.

2017 should be a record-breaking year.

Sale of the Week

In 1962, television viewing audiences were introduced to the Clampett family in a new series that would dominate ratings for the next nine years. The Beverly Hillbillies would remain in the top 20 of all network programming over that era and was twice the most-watched television show of the year.

As Jed Clampett, the family’s father figure was hunting, his errant bullet struck oil on his Ozark Mountain property. The show’s theme song reached #44 on radio charts as Lester Flatt and Earl Scruggs picked and Jerry Scroggins sang the Paul Henning song that included a line “The next thing you know Old Jed’s a millionaire.”

During the course of the show, it was revealed that Jed sold his real estate holdings for $25 million, at that time an incredible number, and a sum that made him the Bank of Beverly Hills. The Beatles, for the sake of comparison, made $75,000 from the song “She Loves You,” which sold 2.5 million copies, and were paid $3,500 to appear on The Ed Sullivan Show.

Last week, 927 Kirkwood Avenue sold for $1 million. In 2017, a Jed Clampett type could buy several houses on Kirkwood. Listed by the omnipresent Ron Jones of PARKS and built by Southern Elite Custom Homes, it bears no semblance to the mansion the Clampetts purchased when they settled in Beverly Hills.

The Kirkwood home has 4,125 square feet and no cement pond, the Clampett term for swimming pool, but does have four bedrooms – enough for Jed, Granny, Elly May and Jethro but no guest quarters for cousin Pearl or Flatt and Scruggs on one of their cameo appearances.

Located in the Heart of 12South and built by a firm with Southern in its name, the residence would appeal to Granny, who hailed from Greenville, Tennessee, and was no fan of the Union Army.

While in this financial environment, the Clampetts, even with aggressive accountants, might have netted $18 million or so after taxes, could have bought 18 houses along Kirkwood. The capital gains taxes were at 25 percent, although regular income was taxed at 91 percent. And we think we have it bad now.

Back in 1962, when houses like 811 Kirkwood were selling in the $12,000 range, they could have bought 1,500 houses in and around 12South. Had they held the properties until 2012 and began to unload them strategically, they would have made another fortune.

Even if sold as teardowns at $450,000, the Clampett heirs would have amassed $675 million on their $18 million investment in Nashville.

In recent years, the rents would have been at least $1,000 per month for gross income of $1.5 million per month, or $18 million annually. What goes around comes around.

Jed was wise to sell the real estate rather than the oil, as the oil would have been taxed at the 91 percent ordinary income rate, according to the highly regarded CPA Ken Kraft.

Richard Courtney is a real estate broker with Christianson, Patterson, Courtney, and Associates and can be reached at richard@richardcourtney.com.

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RECORD TOTALS DAY WEEK YEAR
PROPERTY SALES 0 0 0
MORTGAGES 0 0 0
FORECLOSURE NOTICES 0 0 0
BUILDING PERMITS 0 0 0
BANKRUPTCIES 0 0 0
BUSINESS LICENSES 0 0 0
UTILITY CONNECTIONS 0 0 0
MARRIAGE LICENSES 0 0 0